Understanding the Effectiveness of Active Travel Policy Portfolios with Agent-Based Modelling

This paper simulates mobility policies intended to effect a modal shift from private car to active modes (i.e., cycling and walking), using an agent-based transport simulation framework (MATSim). A set of urban mobility policies aiming to change the built environment and mobility behaviour is defined, simulated and assessed in the Tyne and Wear region of England. Results obtained show that economic rewards (e.g. £0.15 subsidy per kilometre walked or cycled) and penalties (daily £2.50 charge when using cars) are effective in shifting individuals from private car (7%-points and 14%-points change respectively) to active modes (10%-points and 4%-points). Furthermore, effectiveness is greater when several policies are combined, achieving a 13%-points car reduction and 22%-points increase in active modes when the economic rewards are implemented in conjunction with a cycle path improvement scheme; and a 18%-points reduction in car use and a 12%-point increase in active modes when the economic penalties are combined with cycle paths. Further analyses are conducted to quantify the impacts of policies based on the distance travelled by mode of transport, the geospatial distribution of cycling routes and economic benefits.